it was noticeable how quickly and massively the Russian security authorities responded to the incident. First of all, the Russian National anti-terrorism were assumed that the Committee and the investigation Committee of Terror – finally the culprit had used in addition to a shot gun and explosive devices. From Russia, the national guard, as well as experts of the domestic secret service FSB, the security forces of the Ministry of interior as well as the medical staff moved in.

According to the Russian newspaper “Kommersant” to conduct a special investigator with the group, under the leadership of major General, the investigation of the mass murder. Sergei Golkin had been previously, for example, with the investigation of an attack on the Metro in St. Petersburg in 2017 and the fire in a Russian shopping centre in the spring with more than 60 dead bodies. This shows how high Moscow depends on the case.

Although the fact of Kerch everything points to a personal motive – the perpetrator is said to have had a dispute at the school – to examine the military, according to the report, whether the 18-Year-old ties to “Ukrainian extremists”. The extent to which a “Ukrainian trace” suspected in the Kremlin seriously, it is difficult to judge. Perhaps it is more propaganda against Ukraine, because so far there is no evidence of a political motive.

Why does Moscow so sensitive to the act of a student? There are several reasons for this.

1. Putin’s Prestige victory: he is allergic to all of the incidents in Crimea

The violent annexation of Crimea in 2014 is the biggest domestic policy success of the last years for Putin, even if the mag outside of Russia sound paradoxical. But you should remember that Putin can, in addition to the Signal abroad that he will push the boundaries and against international law, if he wants to, something was different: The Crimean annexation is for many Russians a national achievement and a historic victory of Putin. This also showed his approval values, which exploded after the annexation outright.

This explains why for Putin, everything is important and politically with the Crimea. This applies in particular to the port city of Kerch: For the local bridge to the Russian mainland – the only direct connection – the Russian President more than three billion euros, the bridge, he opened personally. Even otherwise, the supply of the Crimea is an expensive venture for Russia, because the infrastructure there is hardly any, also economically, the Peninsula is a loss region. Like the MDR 2017 reported, Moscow had invested to that date, a total of seven to eight billion euros in roads, power plants and bridges. Would add grants to the budget of the Crimean”government” in the billions: Two-thirds of the budget shall exclude from Moscow.

This shows the importance of the Crimea for the Kremlin: It almost seems no matter how much money is on the Peninsula disappears, as long as the President of its population can show that the Crimea of Russia is controlled. Conversely, this means: An incident in the Crimea, alarmed the Kremlin, especially as everything that could endanger the Slogan “The Crimea is our.” Here, the policy-Newsletter

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2. Fear of “sabotage”

2015 committed activists of the Crimean Tatar minority in fact, some attacks on the power supply on the Peninsula, for example, electricity were blown up masts and the power supply from the Ukraine to a standstill. Meanwhile, the Crimea from Russia is supplied with electricity, but there are always bottlenecks, and power failures. Moscow regularly makes Kiev responsible. There were also arrests of Ukrainians for alleged Sabotage. The Ukrainian government rejects such allegations as politically motivated.

Also in the current case, it initially seemed likely that the Kremlin would accuse the government in Kiev, to have something to do with the School attack. However, such votes have become now, where the terrorist suspects from the table is quieter. In General, there is a tendency in Moscow, with Sabotage-allegations of enemy to stir up the blissful atmosphere against Kiev, to earn the Russians behind the Kremlin-line. Whether or not Putin’s Propaganda machine in respect to hot to be running, it will show in the next few days.

3. The consent to Putin and to the government drops

The Russian President was delighted after the annexation of Crimea on Approval ratings of nearly 90 percent. The monthly surveys conducted by the independent Russian opinion research Institute, Lewada show, however, that the “Crimea is ours” have now fizzled out. Putin’s Approval rating, which drops by Prime Minister Medvedev and the government have been declining for months, also the trust in the Parliament and other institutions. 67 percent of respondents Russians are loud Lewada with Putin satisfied, only 58 percent trust in him. In comparison to the previous year, Putin has lost the confidence Ranking of 17 percentage points.

One obvious reason for this is the controversial pension reform, the Russian President has recently pushed through. Although numerous exemptions have been announced, but in the Kremlin had underestimated the resentment of the population, apparently. The Lewada center determined that the Protest mood in the face of the pension plans at the level of Crimea’s annexation. This must be for Putin to miss, after all, he considered Protest against its policy as an attack not only on his personal Power, but also as a possible cause of the incident tour for unrest, the real or perceived enemies could call in Russia on the Plan. A typical fear of Russian governments is that the West could exploit the political unrest of the day to install a Pro-Western government in Russia.

the population is apparently currently closed behind him, is likely to increase Putin’s nervousness.

4. Putin’s party will no longer be left automatically after

chosen is Also a reason for tension from the Kremlin’s point of view: The approval for the Putin-supporters of party “United Russia” in the regional elections. The political scientist Alexander Kynew of the Moscow “Higher School of Economics works” in an essay for the “Russia-analysis” at the University of Bremen. Kynew comes to the conclusion that in the Regional and gubernatorial elections this year, there was an increased tendency for candidates of the Opposition and voices of the system opposition. “System opposition” parties that are not represented in the government, in the Parliament, but only the semblance of Opposition to awaken.

It is even largely unknown candidate had been successful, writes Kynew. “Even a part of the traditionally loyal to the regime electorate” voted this Time against the government. At the same time, the policy has observed scientists that the Kremlin was a very active part in the candidacy of “real” and promising the opposition.

This shows two things: first, that the government is a matter of so little sure, that the more the Opposition obstructs solid, instead of the fact that their own candidate can prevail as in the past years. Secondly, that the actually not very politicized population in the regions is increasingly dissatisfied with the government and in the voting booth. The former is nothing New, the latter is a new development, which will occupy the Kremlin.

with Material from dpa

FOCUS Online/Wochit run amok on the Crimean Peninsula: a classmate filmed, than in the Interior, the shots were fired

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